NFL Betting Trends: Cardinals defy odds as underdogs surge
Arizona’s three wins this season all came as heavy underdogs, marking the first time since 1971 that big underdogs covered every week.
By Takeshi Faure ·
The Arizona Cardinals are winning their games, but they are doing it in a way that upends traditional betting expectations. All three of Arizona’s victories this season have come when they were underdogs of seven or more points. This performance makes the Cardinals the only team in the league to be 4-0 against the spread in that specific category.
According to ESPN Research, underdogs of at least seven points have now gone 20-7-2 against the spread, securing nine straight-up wins. This marks the first time since 1971 that underdogs of seven or more points have won at least one game outright in each of the first eight weeks of the season. The trend has been particularly evident for Arizona, which remains unbeaten against the spread as a heavy underdog.
The Cardinals’ most recent victory illustrates the scale of these upsets. Down by 14 points in the fourth quarter against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, Arizona was listed at 28-1 on the live moneyline at DraftKings. Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, noted that some customers backed the Cardinals in the 12-1 range, but the volume was not high enough to cause major issues for the sportsbook. Feazel described Arizona as the most important decision for the book’s favor on Sunday.
Bettors have historically favored strong teams, making these upsets valuable for sportsbooks. Feazel stated that while interest in taking points with underdogs is growing, a widespread shift away from favorites on the moneyline has not yet occurred. He added that the 2026 season has seen a welcome change compared to 2024, when public favorites frequently found a way to win. DraftKings reported that neither the Cardinals nor the Cowboys were heavily backed in the latest matchup.
The Cardinals started the season with the shortest odds to have the fewest regular-season wins at +250. They were tied with the Miami Dolphins for the lowest preseason win total of 3.5, a mark not seen since 2017. The team’s recent success includes a Week 6 win over the Los Angeles Rams as 13.5-point underdogs, which was the largest upset of the season based on point spread.
Seven-point underdogs trailing by 14 or more points in the fourth quarter are 5-977 since 2000, according to ESPN Research. The Cardinals are also the first team in the Super Bowl era to record three road wins as at least seven-point underdogs in their first eight games. The team needs just one more win to cash futures tickets for bettors who backed them for the fewest wins.
The Cardinals’ next opportunity to secure that win is in Week 9 against the Seattle Seahawks. Arizona will be on the road and are listed as 11.5-point underdogs according to DraftKings lines. This upcoming game offers another chance for the team to continue its unusual run of success as a heavy underdog.
