Patriots favored to fall short in Week 9 upset
A statistical model predicts New England will lose to Green Bay by a single point, urging survivor pool players to look elsewhere for safer picks.
By Sanjay Caldwell ·
A projection model that simulates every NFL game 10,000 times predicts the New England Patriots will lose to the Green Bay Packers by just one point. The model, which has a 60-51 record on top-rated picks dating back to 2024, shows New England as 3-point and -158 money-line favorites for the Sunday game at Gillette Stadium. This narrow projected margin suggests the game is highly volatile for fantasy and pool purposes.
The Patriots are currently 5-3 on the season. In Week 8, they defeated the Miami Dolphins 24-19 despite trailing 13-3 at halftime. Quarterback Drake Maye has completed 67.1% of his passes for 1,983 yards and 15 touchdowns in eight starts. However, he has also thrown eight interceptions. The team's recent games have been close, which may explain the model's hesitation.
Green Bay is also 5-3 and is 2-2 on the road this season. Veteran quarterback Jordan Love has completed 61.5% of his passes for 2,246 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions. The Packers lead the league in dropped passes. Wide receiver Christian Watson has 42 receptions for 708 yards and six touchdowns, while Matthew Golden has 43 catches for 619 yards and four scores. Despite their passing attack, Green Bay ranks last in the NFL in rushing.
The model is not confident in the Patriots. It suggests that other favorites offer better value for survivor pool players. The Texans are favored by 4.5 points against the Chargers, and the 49ers are favored by 10 points over the Raiders. The Cardinals face the Seahawks, who are favored by 12.5 points and have won the last 10 matchups against Arizona.
Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season features only 15 games because two teams are on byes. Upsets have plagued survivor pools recently, with losses recorded for the Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs, and New York Jets. The Cowboys entered their recent game as 7.5-point favorites over the Cardinals but lost.
The projection model has generated over $5,000 in profits for $100 players on betting sites since its inception. It identifies one team as a high-confidence pick, winning outright in nearly 80% of simulations. This team has not been heavily used in survivor pools, making it a potential contrarian play.
The Patriots-Packers game is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The model's data indicates that while New England is the favorite, the margin of victory is too small to guarantee a win in most simulations. Players relying on the Patriots to advance in their pools face a higher risk of elimination compared to those selecting other favorites.
The Packers' offensive statistics show a high volume of passes, but the team's rushing attack remains the worst in the league. The Patriots' defense has allowed one-score games recently, including the close win over Miami. The model's output suggests that the Patriots' current form does not justify the favorite status in a tight contest.
