Trump’s Russian Diesel Deal Fails to Lower U.S. Fuel Prices
A $1 billion sanctions waiver for Moscow has yet to reduce pump prices, which have risen 67% since the start of the Iran war.
By Lucas Sheridan ·
President Trump’s Oct. 9 announcement that the U.S. would import nearly 5 million tons of Russian diesel has not lowered fuel costs for American drivers. The average U.S. diesel price stood at $6.20 per gallon the week before the deal was unveiled. By the start of the previous week, that average had climbed to $6.35. The administration had predicted prices would drop fast, but data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows the market moved in the opposite direction.
The sharp increase in diesel costs traces back to the start of the Trump administration’s war with Iran on Feb. 28. That conflict restricted crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. From that date through Oct. 26, average diesel prices rose by nearly 67%. Regular gasoline prices increased by about 41% over the same period. Trump initially blamed Ukraine for the spike, citing attacks on Russian refineries, but the Iran war offers the primary explanation for the surge.
Energy experts question whether the Russian imports will change the market dynamic. The U.S. is currently a net exporter of diesel, shipping roughly 200,000 metric tons abroad daily. Robert McCullough, an energy consultant based in Portland, Oregon, noted that 4.8 million tonnes of diesel sounds large but only covers about 30 hours of global consumption. For the U.S. alone, the entire deal provides roughly 12 days of supply. McCullough compared the logic to carrying coals to Newcastle, given the country’s existing export capacity.
Goldman Sachs estimates the first shipments might lower U.S. diesel prices by only two to five cents per gallon. That amount is small compared to the $2.65 per gallon increase consumers have seen over the last year. The deal includes an immediate delivery of more than 300,000 tons, another 500,000 tons by the end of November, and a further 4 million tons with unclear timing. Trump suspended U.S. sanctions on these deliveries until early April 2027.
The sanctions waiver violates the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which Trump signed into law on Sept. 18. The law requires a certified ceasefire and Russian troop withdrawal before the oil ban lifts. Neither condition has been met. Stephen Sestanovich, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the move signaled that the U.S. was willing to dismantle sanctions unilaterally, even when it contradicted its own legislation.
A bipartisan group of twelve senators wrote to Trump on Oct. 13 to demand the deal be rescinded. They argued the agreement provides Putin with revenue to finance his war machine while offering negligible relief to Americans. Sergey Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center called the income for Russia small fry, but noted it relieves stress on the Russian economy. The deal also creates a wedge in the unified sanctions policy shared by the U.S. and the European Union.
The administration frames the waivers as a diplomatic incentive to end the war. Energy Secretary Chris Wright described the measure as a carrot for Russia. However, the volume of fuel involved is too small to reverse the broader price increase caused by the Iran conflict. The deal stands as a temporary suspension of penalties that may complicate future negotiations with European allies and Congress.
