Carr surges to Heisman favorite after Irish topple Miami

CJ Carr is now the +190 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy following a wild Saturday in college football that saw the top of the rankings turn upside down. The Notre Dame quarterback moved from +500 odds as the third choice before the game to the front of the pack after leading the Fighting Irish past No. 1 Miami. The result was the centerpiece of a day where four schools in the College Football Playoff top 10 lost their games.

The upset ended a streak that had kept the top two teams alive for five consecutive weeks, a run now tied for the longest in AP and CFP poll history. It also marked the first time since 1990 that the No. 1 team in the AP poll lost four times during a regular season. For Notre Dame, the victory carried a specific weight. It arrived exactly six years to the day after the Irish beat Clemson during the 2020 season, their only year as a full-time ACC member.

Carr completed 29 of 40 passes for 319 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in the 31-24 win. He became only the fifth FBS quarterback in the past 30 years to throw for at least 300 yards and three scores without a pick against the nation’s No. 1 team. The other players to achieve that feat were Will Howard, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, and Deshaun Watson. None of those quarterbacks won the Heisman, though none produced such a performance during a regular season game.

The Irish enter the final weeks of the regular season with a favorable position in the playoff picture. They are already a -475 favorite to reach the postseason and are now priced at -4000. Only Georgia, which has taken over the No. 1 spot in both the AP and CFP rankings, holds shorter odds at -9000. Notre Dame secures an automatic berth if it finishes in the top 12. The remaining regular season slate includes home games against Boston College and SMU, plus a road trip to Syracuse.

One structural disadvantage for Carr is that Notre Dame does not play in a conference championship game. This denies him a national showcase on the final weekend before votes are due on Dec. 7. That date is the Monday after championship Saturday. The program has not had a Heisman winner since Tim Brown in 1987. The last quarterback to win it for the Irish was John Huarte in 1964, and no Irish quarterback has finished in the top three since Brady Quinn in 2006.

Miami’s Darian Mensah remains the second favorite at +250, up from +170 entering the weekend. The Hurricanes offense struggled in the absence of star wideout Malachi Toney, who will miss the rest of the regular season and the ACC title game. Mensah posted a season-worst 55.8% completion rate and threw a season-high 19 incompletions. He entered the game with only 45 incompletions for the entire year. Miami’s remaining schedule features Duke, Virginia Tech, and Boston College.

Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith slipped from +150 to +280 in the odds. He is the only other player with odds under +1500. The Buckeyes were defeated 41-28 at home by Oregon, their second straight double-digit loss and third overall. An injury to quarterback Julian Sayin in the Oct. 17 win at Indiana derailed the season. Smith caught seven passes for 133 yards and a touchdown against the Ducks, but the loss leaves the team effectively out of the playoff race.

Utah quarterback Devon Dampier made the weekend’s largest jump in odds, moving from +10000 to +1500. The Utes beat BYU 28-20 to snap a three-game skid in the Holy War. Dampier threw for 177 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 87 yards and two scores. This marked Utah’s 15th straight win and Dampier’s 17th consecutive game with at least two touchdowns. The Utes are one of two unbeaten teams remaining alongside UCLA and are now -700 to reach the playoff.

Utah faces a difficult test at No. 22 Arizona before closing the season at TCU and against West Virginia. The best Heisman finish by a Utah player remains Alex Smith’s fourth place in 2004. Georgia’s Gunner Stockton sits at +2700 despite leading the new No. 1 team. His position raises questions about whether his individual numbers are strong enough to close the gap on Carr, Mensah, or Dampier in the final weeks.