Midterm Ballots: Georgia and Pennsylvania voters show mixed loyalty to Trump

Two Georgia voters who helped elect President Trump in 2024 are taking opposite sides in the 2026 midterms.

The divergence illustrates how the president's coalition is fragmenting nearly two years into his second term. Gerald, who gave Trump an A+++ rating, voted for Republican Senate candidate Mike Collins and gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson. He described his ballot as "Red all the way down," noting he even wrote in his own name for a minor office to avoid selecting an unopposed Democrat. Wally, in contrast, gave Trump an F, citing inflation and ineffective leadership. He voted for Democratic Senate incumbent Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, viewing the vote as a direct check on the president.

NPR has tracked these voters through its long-term reporting project, Swing Shift. The group consists of Americans who supported Trump at some point in the last decade, with most voting for him just two years ago. In the week leading up to Election Day, their assessments of the administration largely mirrored national polling data. Only two of the 11 tracked voters expressed satisfaction with the president's performance. The rest used words like "messy," "divided," and "scary" to describe the country's state, frequently citing the war in Iran and high energy prices as primary concerns.

The disconnect between presidential approval and party loyalty is particularly visible in Pennsylvania. Three of four Pennsylvania voters in the study backed Trump in 2024. However, three of those same individuals now intend to vote for Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro for re-election. Theresa, a voter from Pennsylvania, plans to support Shapiro, saying she is sticking with the politician she knows best. She gave Trump a C- because he promised a short war in Iran that has dragged on. This split suggests that even former base supporters are willing to cross party lines for down-ballot races.

In other battleground states, the patterns vary. Lee, a Nevada voter who is employed and optimistic about the economy, gave Trump an A- despite concerns about the Iran conflict. He says he has become more Republican and more suspicious of Democrats. Quintero, also from Nevada and a former Biden supporter who switched to Trump, is swinging back to the Democratic column for this year's midterms. These shifts indicate that the 2024 Trump base does not automatically guarantee Republican votes for House, Senate, or governor races in 2026.

For Republicans, the central challenge is converting the president's mandate into legislative gains without him on the ballot. In Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, a competitive House race in the northern suburbs of Philadelphia, voter Stephen plans to re-elect incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick while supporting Shapiro for governor. He may write in for other offices but sees Fitzpatrick as a safe bet. John, a Philadelphia voter who backed the Republican gubernatorial candidate, described the country as "anxious." He expects a period of gridlock and investigations if Democrats take control, a prospect he believes the nation cannot afford right now.